In praise of ignorance and being wrong

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What comes before learning? In 1995, I was out of work and interviewing for a job as an analyst at a research company. As they described the job to me, I became very excited. My job was going to be to identify important questions for business clients where the answer was not yet known. Like … Continued

Robert Scoble was wrong about iPhone X, but he’s a mensch about it.

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Robert Scoble had predicted the next iPhone would be focused on augmented reality (AR) and transparent, like a piece of glass. It wasn’t. But his description of why he was wrong is revealing, both about Scoble and about the future of both AR and iPhones. I’m a little deeper into this story than most people reading … Continued

Nate Cohn, Nate Silver describe how they misread Donald Trump

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I’ve said that true analysts find bigger truths when they’re wrong. Smart people predicted Donald Trump would never win the Republican nomination. It’s pretty revealing what they learned from their mistakes. Let’s look in particular at the mea culpa pieces by Nate Cohn of the New York Times’ feature “The Upshot” and Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. First, admit your mistake True analysts … Continued

How to be wrong

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I have made many predictions in my life, publicly. And I have been wrong plenty of times. If you write boldly, you will be, too. People who are sometimes wrong are smarter than people who are always right. So learn how to be wrong properly. If you’re one of those people who don’t ever want … Continued