Economist Peter Navarro promises Trump he will eliminate bad news and unpleasant facts
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Economist Peter Navarro promises Trump he will eliminate bad news and unpleasant facts

After Gary Cohn’s departure as Donald Trump’s chief economic advisor, UC Irvine economist Peter Navarro, who has declared Donald Trump’s intuition infallible, is a leading candidate to replace him. There is a challenge for analysts and managers in every organization. On the one hand, they should be dedicated to hard evidence and truth, so that…

Bitcoin at $100,000? For any prediction, ask “what’s your methodology?”

Bitcoin at $100,000? For any prediction, ask “what’s your methodology?”

CNBC reported that, according to Saxo Bank analyst Kay Van-Peterson, the price of bitcoin “could hit $100,000” in 2018. This is a good time to ask, “Where do numbers like this come from?” Broadly speaking, analysts use detailed analysis and models to identify what is happening and predict what will happen. But what is the…

How an open-ended, curious mindset creates career success

How an open-ended, curious mindset creates career success

Everybody has questions. Everybody wants answers. What determines your future is the kind of questions you ask, and whether the answers satisfy or stimulate you. One way to succeed is to get really good at something. This competency-focused mindset can get you a good job, and if you’re good at something for which there is…

The analyst’s essential role: engage your emotions about the future

The analyst’s essential role: engage your emotions about the future

We pay attention to the now. That’s especially true because Facebook spreads it, instantly. But what matters is not the now, it’s the future. The job of the true analyst is make you care as much about that future as the ephemeral distractions of the present. This came into crystal focus for me when I read Austin…

Nate Cohn, Nate Silver describe how they misread Donald Trump
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Nate Cohn, Nate Silver describe how they misread Donald Trump

I’ve said that true analysts find bigger truths when they’re wrong. Smart people predicted Donald Trump would never win the Republican nomination. It’s pretty revealing what they learned from their mistakes. Let’s look in particular at the mea culpa pieces by Nate Cohn of the New York Times’ feature “The Upshot” and Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. First, admit your mistake True analysts…

How to be wrong

How to be wrong

I have made many predictions in my life, publicly. And I have been wrong plenty of times. If you write boldly, you will be, too. People who are sometimes wrong are smarter than people who are always right. So learn how to be wrong properly. If you’re one of those people who don’t ever want…