Ted Cruz is out. Bernie Sanders can’t realistically win. So it’s Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton for the 2016 presidential election. Regardless of what you hear, watch closely, because gender perspectives will drive this election. Conventional campaign policy dictates a pivot toward the center in the general election, in which candidates talk less about policies that energize…
In an unprecedented move in presidential politics, the campaign of Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is preparing to file for bankruptcy. Without Bullshit has gotten access to internal campaign documents that reveal a detailed plan to close the campaign, sell off its assets, and put an end to Trump’s involvement in politics. In a not-yet-released interview with MSNBC’s…
After his Super Tuesday wins, it’s likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president. More than in any past election, his choice of VP makes all the difference — not just in electability, but because he might not last a full term. He needs to pick someone less wacko than he is. Super…
WASHINGTON, August 1, 2016. As we wind down from the nominating conventions of both parties, America faces the most unusual election scenario in decades. Hillary Clinton, fresh from a bruising fight to win the Democratic nomination, faces Mitt Romney, chosen by the Republicans at a brokered convention, and independent Michael Bloomberg. And it all began on…
The 2016 candidates for president have babbled on so extensively and gotten so much media coverage that it all just blends together. So I asked myself: if I let my brain get tired and stupid, what sound bite remains? Here’s what stuck to my brain (sorted by their results in Iowa). Regrettably, when many people…
For months, the political media have had nothing to talk about but polls and expectations. Yesterday reality crashed the party in Iowa, revealing the vacuity of the polls and the “expectations game.” Let’s examine how poll/expectations-based “analysis” differs from reality-based analysis. The polls were totally off Let’s compare two recent Iowa polls, the Quinnipiac poll done Sunday and…
Sometimes the political media gets so tangled up in its own underwear that it’s comical. Musings about expectations don’t qualify as news — they should be marked “for entertainment purposes only.” That’s why I must ridicule Kathie Obradovich’s recent article in the Des Moines Register (also reprinted into the Boston Globe). There are candidate positions. There is…
I’m sick of people treating presidential poll numbers as if they are facts. They’ve got no connection to the upcoming election. Drawing precise conclusions from a sample of 450 likely voters a year before the election is bullshit. Look, I’m no newcomer to consumer surveys. I spent 18 years launching and working with Forrester’s broad…