Financial strategist market forecasts are worthless, but not useless

Financial strategist market forecasts are worthless, but not useless

In Sunday’s New York Times, Jeff Sommer complains that financial strategist forecasts for market returns are terrible. They are. But they are a little better than guessing. And they have value nonetheless. Sommer’s critique Sommer thinks the forecasts of economists and financial strategists are way off. Here’s his critique: [T]he stock and bond markets are swinging haphazardly,…

When it comes to screenshots of tweets, don’t be a credulous idiot
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When it comes to screenshots of tweets, don’t be a credulous idiot

The Dow dropped 1,000 points yesterday, crashed by fears about the Coronavirus. And two screenshots of past Trump tweets spread like wildfire. This is a situation where the urge to share led many astray — and it’s pernicious, regardless of what side of the political divide you land on. Here are the two screenshots that…

No one knows if a recession is coming. But that doesn’t stop them from writing about it.

No one knows if a recession is coming. But that doesn’t stop them from writing about it.

The brutal stock downturn and indicators like the bond yield curve are signaling that a recession might be on its way. It must be that time again: Time for economists to make equivocal predictions, and journalists to equivocate madly writing about them. Neil Irwin of The New York Times feature “The Upshot” is here to…

Climbing the rickety stack of financial expectations
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Climbing the rickety stack of financial expectations

The stock market has already priced in anything you read in The Wall Street Journal about stocks. So they fill space with an elaborate passel of theories that’s obscure enough that you might think the market doesn’t understand it yet. That’s fine, so long as you realize it’s for entertainment purposes only. Markets reporters at a paper…

The only accurate stock market prediction you’ll read today

The only accurate stock market prediction you’ll read today

I’m here to help you in this troubled time for the market. I will provide you with an accurate description of why the market is down, one that differs from everything you have read in the media. Not only that, I’ll make a bold prediction about where markets are going next. And I’ll tell you how to interpret every article…

Your regular, daily bullshit: financial markets news

Your regular, daily bullshit: financial markets news

Every single day, the Wall Street Journal and other financial news outlets publish a financial wrapup. And you can count on it including a healthy helping of bullshit every day, too. Here’s the problem: the numbers are facts, but news requires a “story” to wrap around the facts. Creating a story from the fluctuations of…