Elections, hurricanes, and the uncertainty conundrum
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Elections, hurricanes, and the uncertainty conundrum

ByJosh Bernoff

I have two simple questions for you. Is Elizabeth Warren the most likely democratic candidate to win the Democratic nomination? Is Elizabeth Warren more likely than not to win the Democratic nomination? One way to analyze these questions is to look at the odds on a site like PredictIt. As I write this, you can…

How unlikely are those Celtics comebacks? How often does the improbable happen in the NBA?

How unlikely are those Celtics comebacks? How often does the improbable happen in the NBA?

ByJosh Bernoff

The ESPN app and ESPN.com include a feature that allows you to see the probability, at any point in a basketball game, that a team will win. Based on these stats, the Boston Celtics appear to be defying the odds on a regular basis. Are they really this great, or is it just a statistical…