Marco Rubio: the candidate that might have been

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How did we end up with such unpopular candidates? Donald Trump continues to respond to pain with hate. The GOP Rules Committee voted down a proposal to unbind delegates from their promises, so he’ll be the nominee of the Republican party. Dozens of prominent Republicans have withheld their support. Mitt Romney and both ex-President Bushes won’t be … Continued

In the wake of Super Tuesday, Trump’s VP choice will be pivotal

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After his Super Tuesday wins, it’s likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president. More than in any past election, his choice of VP makes all the difference — not just in electability, but because he might not last a full term. He needs to pick someone less wacko than he is. Super … Continued

It’s set for election 2016: Clinton vs. Romney vs. Bloomberg

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WASHINGTON, August 1, 2016. As we wind down from the nominating conventions of both parties, America faces the most unusual election scenario in decades. Hillary Clinton, fresh from a bruising fight to win the Democratic nomination, faces Mitt Romney, chosen by the Republicans at a brokered convention, and independent Michael Bloomberg. And it all began on … Continued

The 2016 candidates as sound bites

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The 2016 candidates for president have babbled on so extensively and gotten so much media coverage that it all just blends together. So I asked myself: if I let my brain get tired and stupid, what sound bite remains? Here’s what stuck to my brain (sorted by their results in Iowa). Regrettably, when many people … Continued

Iowa polls, “expectations” were a pale shadow of the truth

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For months, the political media have had nothing to talk about but polls and expectations. Yesterday reality crashed the party in Iowa, revealing the vacuity of the polls and the “expectations game.” Let’s examine how poll/expectations-based “analysis” differs from reality-based analysis. The polls were totally off Let’s compare two recent Iowa polls, the Quinnipiac poll done Sunday and … Continued

The Expectations Game is gibberish in the Iowa caucuses

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Sometimes the political media gets so tangled up in its own underwear that it’s comical. Musings about expectations don’t qualify as news — they should be marked “for entertainment purposes only.” That’s why I must ridicule Kathie Obradovich’s recent article in the Des Moines Register (also reprinted into the Boston Globe). There are candidate positions. There is … Continued

Donald Trump endgame: The Trumpist Party

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Analysts predict not only what will happen next, but what will happen after that. Here’s my prediction: after losing in 2016, Donald Trump will form his own party, the Trumpist Party. Trump is divisive Trump thrills white men and scares nearly everybody else. Donald Trump is a hero for white, working-class men. As Kathleen Parker writes in the Washington Post, … Continued

Those polls you’re reading? They’re bullshit.

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I’m sick of people treating presidential poll numbers as if they are facts. They’ve got no connection to the upcoming election. Drawing precise conclusions from a sample of 450 likely voters a year before the election is bullshit. Look, I’m no newcomer to consumer surveys. I spent 18 years launching and working with Forrester’s broad … Continued