Biden’s positioning

Biden’s positioning

Now that Donald Trump is presiding over a public health and economic catastrophe of historic proportions, it would seem that it should be easy for Joe Biden to win reelection. But of course, if Trump is the opponent, you can take nothing for granted. Trump’s modus operandi, as explained by former advisor Steve Bannon, is…

The Elizabeth Warren surge is a poll illusion
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The Elizabeth Warren surge is a poll illusion

According to Monday’s Monmouth University poll, there’s now a three-way tie in the Democratic presidential primary: Warren, Sanders, and Biden. This has been reported as a “surge.” In fact, it says more about polls and media than it does about Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden. The Monmouth University poll reports three front-runners: Elizabeth Warren 20%,…

Hanlon’s Razor, not evil intent, explains Melania Trump’s plagiarism

Hanlon’s Razor, not evil intent, explains Melania Trump’s plagiarism

Melania Trump’s speech just keeps getting more interesting. Now we know how it happened and why some Republicans say it’s as inconsequential as My Little Pony. But no matter how you spin it, this is a disaster, not a nefarious conspiracy to make Trump’s wife sympathetic. The original speechwriters leak that they’re not responsible The New York Times…

Those polls you’re reading? They’re bullshit.
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Those polls you’re reading? They’re bullshit.

I’m sick of people treating presidential poll numbers as if they are facts. They’ve got no connection to the upcoming election. Drawing precise conclusions from a sample of 450 likely voters a year before the election is bullshit. Look, I’m no newcomer to consumer surveys. I spent 18 years launching and working with Forrester’s broad…