Analysts, the Dunning-Kruger Effect, and the Gartner Hype Cycle

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A little knowledge is dangerously misleading. That’s the message of the Dunning-Kruger effect, in which ignorant people think they’re smart. It’s the message of the Gartner Hype Cycle, in which people get overenthusiastic about new technologies. And it’s the reason that analysts, over and over again, get overenthusiastic about whatever’s new. In 1999, the psychologists … Continued

The analyst’s essential role: engage your emotions about the future

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We pay attention to the now. That’s especially true because Facebook spreads it, instantly. But what matters is not the now, it’s the future. The job of the true analyst is make you care as much about that future as the ephemeral distractions of the present. This came into crystal focus for me when I read Austin … Continued

Sophisticated writing with simple words (Ask Dr. Wobs)

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One key to writing success is to use words that connect with your audience. The secret is not to rein in your vocabulary, but to keep the bullshit density under control. Dear Dr. Wobs: Is there a formula for figuring out exactly how much the vocabulary level in business writing needs to be “dumbed-down” depending … Continued