Analysts, the Dunning-Kruger Effect, and the Gartner Hype Cycle

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A little knowledge is dangerously misleading. That’s the message of the Dunning-Kruger effect, in which ignorant people think they’re smart. It’s the message of the Gartner Hype Cycle, in which people get overenthusiastic about new technologies. And it’s the reason that analysts, over and over again, get overenthusiastic about whatever’s new. In 1999, the psychologists … Continued

How a Forrester analyst thinks about the robots taking your job

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Robots and other forms of automation are going to transform the job market, but how much? There are four points of view. And that’s a good way to understand what it means to be an analyst. The pessimist looks at the decline of jobs like secretary or factory worker and sees the same pattern in automation … Continued

Do we choose our future, or does it choose us?

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Do you choose your path? Or are you making choices with consequences you can’t imagine? I was thinking about the choices that got me hired at Forrester, a 20-year job that determined my career and my future as an author. I’d like to tell you it was a deliberate and intelligent choice, but it’s way stranger than … Continued