Donald Trump, Dorian, and the meaning of Sharpiegate

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Donald Trump, or someone close to him, scribbled with a Sharpie on a hurricane weather map to convince us he didn’t make a mistake. His judgment is clearly shot. Assuming we survive until election day, that’s going to be a problem. What happened? Well, on September 1, Trump tweeted that Hurricane Dorian was threatening Alabama … Continued

How to help the Bahamas after Dorian

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After Hurricane Dorian reached 200-mile-per-hour winds, it basically stopped on top of two islands in the Bahamas and pounded them for 24 hours. Five people are dead, and they’re going to find more. Here’s how it looks. Grand Bahama Island, one of the two devastated islands, is 55 miles from the coast of Florida. The … Continued

Elections, hurricanes, and the uncertainty conundrum

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I have two simple questions for you. Is Elizabeth Warren the most likely democratic candidate to win the Democratic nomination? Is Elizabeth Warren more likely than not to win the Democratic nomination? One way to analyze these questions is to look at the odds on a site like PredictIt. As I write this, you can … Continued