Category: Truth and Influence

10 ways to tell true experts from pretenders

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I’m getting pretty sick of people who try things once and then become experts, ready to tell you how to do what they did. The internet is full of these pretenders. I have a bookshelf full of books of advice for authors, most of which are not worth the 25 minutes it would take to … Continued

Positioning for thought leaders

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Sure, it sounds attractive to be a “thought leader.” You just hold yourself out as an expert on something and then post a lot on social media and wait for the speaking and consulting gigs come pouring in, right? Not quite. There are a lot of pretenders out there. And there are a lot of … Continued

Irrational arguments

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Let’s use a mathematical proof to understand the irrational, irrelevant, and distracting ways that people argue these days. Proof that the square root of two is irrational If you are math-phobic, be assured that the argument below is relatively painless. You might even enjoy it. The square root of 2, which we write as √2, … Continued

Financial strategist market forecasts are worthless, but not useless

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In Sunday’s New York Times, Jeff Sommer complains that financial strategist forecasts for market returns are terrible. They are. But they are a little better than guessing. And they have value nonetheless. Sommer’s critique Sommer thinks the forecasts of economists and financial strategists are way off. Here’s his critique: [T]he stock and bond markets are swinging haphazardly, … Continued

Beware of analysts and “thought leaders” flogging trends

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People who thrive on attention — analysts and “thought leaders” — will tell you about what’s new and on fire. Making long-term decisions based on that is likely a mistake. If you’re not on top of a trend, you’re nobody Imagine for a moment that you are trying to be a thought leader. This includes … Continued

The problem with “Do your own research.”

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“Do your own research” is one of the most pernicious phrases on the internet. Hucksters use it to fool people. It will lead you astray. Based on my 20 years as a researcher, I’ll delve into what research actually is, what it means when someone writes “do your own research,” and why it leads to … Continued

Expert speakers or trainers are not interchangeable

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If you hire experts to train on areas outside their expertise, you’ll pay too much and get a really poor result. It’s like paying a painter to rewire your house. Experts specialize. It’s what makes us experts. I’ll use myself as a case study here, but the same applies to anyone you hire. Imagine that … Continued

Memeflinger or influencer?

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There’s a way to generate influence that bugs me. I call people who do this “memeflingers.” Here’s how it works. First, identify the memes that are spreading most widely on social media, especially if they include meaningless platitudes about behavior and careers. Maybe even hire people to track them down for you. Second, repost as … Continued