Calculating your Thanksgiving COVID-19 risk

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One of my correspondents posted recently that, rather than living in fear, he was having 13 or more people to Thanksgiving at his house. Liberals and health professionals would have you believe that is risky. But just how risky? We all do risk calculations every day. If cars are speeding by on a busy street, … Continued

As election week ends, let’s start governing

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It’s now a foregone conclusion that Joe Biden will win the state of Pennsylvania — and if the mail ballots continue trending as they have, it won’t be close. He’ll be our next President. And he’s likely to win Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona as well, and to end up with well over 50% of the … Continued

The truth about polls in 2020

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The polls predicted a Biden landslide, as well as Democratic takeover of the Senate majority. Neither happened. Let’s look at why polls may be having problems with prediction right now. Where the polls were way off According to estimates by fivethirtyeight.com, an aggregation of polls indicated that Biden would get 51.8% of the final vote … Continued

Always doubt what you want to believe

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Good morning. I trust you slept well and soundly last night. As I write this, no serious news organization has declared the winner of the US presidential election. Based on current vote counts (9:15am) and the likelihood of remaining Democratic-skewing mail ballots being counted, Joe Biden is more likely than not to win the presidency, … Continued

The Rationalist Papers (31): Election day

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We’ve reached the end of this maddening election cycle. Three things: First, if you still haven’t decided, ask yourself one question. Are you better off today than you were four years ago? That’s the question that the challenger Ronald Reagan asked the audience, a week before the election, in his final debate with President Jimmy … Continued

The Rationalist Papers (30): Harden your heart

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Only the tough survive. It’s time to get tough, America. At its core, that’s the argument for Donald Trump in this election. What’s the alternative? Bleeding-heart liberalism that wants to take what you have and give it to people who don’t deserve it. Sympathy is weakness. To keep America great, you need to harden your … Continued

The Rationalist Papers (28): Trump shtick

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I was watching President Trump speak at a rally and I suddenly realized why his performance seemed so familiar, even though his speaking style is unlike any other politician’s. It’s shtick. Just a reminder: these Rationalist Papers posts are for the group I call the deciders: conservatives, moderates, undecided, and third-party voters considering their choices in the … Continued