If you demonstrate statistical incompetence, why should we trust you?
|

If you demonstrate statistical incompetence, why should we trust you?

People making a point tend to cite statistics. And with simple tools like SurveyMonkey, anyone can create a poll. But if you don’t know how statistics really work, you can seem like a fool. I don’t trust people who use statistical tools in a misleading way. Do you? What’s wrong with this poll on LinkedIn?…

Is America the best in the world in COVID success, or the worst?

Is America the best in the world in COVID success, or the worst?

Donald Trump believes that the US leads the world in successful management of the COVID-19 pandemic. His argument about that with Jonathan Swan, a reporter from Axios, was aired last night. Here’s part of it: Since it’s worth discussing how you measure success with the virus, I took a look at the statistics and how…

Is a Tesla on Autopilot safer? Maybe, but Elon Musk’s stats are crooked
|

Is a Tesla on Autopilot safer? Maybe, but Elon Musk’s stats are crooked

Elon Musk says Tesla is twice as safe with Autopilot on, but his stats don’t add up. Here’s Musk’s tweet. Here’s the quote from Tesla’s report, as published in Teslarati: “In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 2.91 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot,…

5 reasons the Senate race polls in Alabama are wrong
|

5 reasons the Senate race polls in Alabama are wrong

Who’s going to win the special election for the next U.S. Senator from Alabama? According to the two most recent polls, it’s either Republican Roy Moore by 9 points or Democrat Doug Jones by 10 points. How is this much variation even possible? Unless a pollster stands over the shoulder of each individual who votes…

New Hampshire has found the key to winning over Amazon: weasel words and passive voice

New Hampshire has found the key to winning over Amazon: weasel words and passive voice

it seems as if every community in North America is now vying to host Amazon’s second headquarters. These municipal pitch documents, located as they are at the intersection of politics, business, and fantasy, are solidly built on a ratio of one part statistics to five parts bullshit. I took a close look at the pitch…

The Insight Debate: Words vs. Numbers

The Insight Debate: Words vs. Numbers

Moderator: Welcome to the first Insight Debate of 2017. We’ll be hearing from two distinguished purveyors of knowledge, Words and Numbers. I’m Professor Insight, your moderator. Let’s begin. On my left, I’d like to introduce Words. Since the dawn of communication — and certainly since the dawn of written communication over 5000 years ago — words have…

Why all this talk about the “median” income?
|

Why all this talk about the “median” income?

The US Census Bureau released figures yesterday showing that, in 2015, the median annual household income in America increased by 5.2% over a year earlier. That’s an increase of $2,798, to $56,516 per year. Why talk about the “median” and how is that different from an average? I’ll explain. Put simply, when you’re talking about income, the…